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Climate Change



Nainital in the Himalayas

Every now and then, news comes of climate changes in one part of the world or the other from California to elsewhere. It must be realized that climate has always been changing on the planet. There are cycles of changes that are year long, decade long, century long, millennium long, those spanning ten thousand years and others a hundred thousand years or longer. The ice ages of the past have been a part of these cycles as well as the rise and fall of ancient civilization from Sumer to the Indus Valley,
(see http://alienaccount.blogspot.com).

Added to cyclic changes are what may be called climatic perturbations that are of a near random nature. When this perturbation is a severe one, it is called a climate extreme. Aside from natural causes, are some of the climate changes man made? Most scientists believe that some of the recent changes on the planet are caused by human activity that are contributing to climate change in a significant way, although not all such scientists think it is as simple as just carbon emissions or cow pharts. In another note elsewhere, this author has argued that recent climate extremes may be due to large scale deforestation and emergence of large concrete cities devoid of green. Whenever a climate change takes place, it takes a long time for humans to ascertain if it is a perturbation or a cyclic change and what kind of cyclic change, a brief or a long one.

Humans tend to take what they have for granted but it is an unavoidable fact that they would have to adjust to natural cycles of climate change as humans have done ever since prehistoric times and while it is worth debating the contribution of man to climate changes such debates would produce useful results only if they are based on science, justice, logic and common sense and not merely assumptions, ideology, politics or economic agendas of various nations or interest groups on the planet. An earlier note in this blog discusses some aspects of this debate and how to make it more effective See here:
http://steamcenter.blogspot.in/2014/12/how-to-make-climate-change-debate-more.html.


Additional Note for Climate Scientists only:
In view of what was mentioned in this note in general terms, a possible good long term climate prediction model that may work better than many existing more complicated models can be developed by fitting past data to a Fourier series of just five terms with predefined amplitudes of 10, 100, 1000, 10,000, 100,000 years. It may be termed as the Decimal Long Term Climate Forecasting Model.  Care must be taken to select equal number of data points in each of these five periods and that the data is evenly distributed within the periods excluding any points that appear outside 3 sigma range in recent years. Use average annual temperatures for recent decades. Such a correlated Fourier series may give some cyclic climatic prediction over the next hundred or thousand years.  An additional multiplier term to predict seasonal variations may be added based on seasonal data from last hundred years. The superimposed random climate changes can however not be predicted by current science except over very short terms less than a year.
Dr. Ashok Malhotra, Ph.D., UBC, M Tech, B Tech IIT Delhi
 

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